White House Disputes North Korea’s Claim of Hydrogen Bomb Test - NYTimes.com

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-claim-reactions.html?_r=0 White House Disputes North Korea’s Claim of Hydrogen Bomb Test
President Park Geun-hye of South Korea, center, convened an urgent meeting of her top national security aides in Seoul, South Korea, on Wednesday.
SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENTIAL BLUE HOUSE, VIA GETTY IMAGES
By CHOE SANG-HUN and DAVID E. SANGER
JANUARY 6, 2016
SEOUL, South Korea — The White House said Wednesday that initial data fromits monitoring stations in Asia were “not consistent” with NorthKorea’s claim that the nuclear test it carried out earlier in the day was its first test ofa hydrogen bomb, a far morepowerfulweaponthan the country had previously built.
The statement by Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, came as the United Nations Security Council condemnedthe test aftera two-hour closed-door meeting, and afterChina, Britain, France, Japan and other powers indicated that they would consider action against the country.
The United States did notindicate the basis for its skepticism. But the seismic wave left by the explosion was smaller than what most experts would expect from the detonation ofa true thermonuclear weapon. Some experts said it was possible that the Northhad increased the yield ofa moretraditional deviceusing tritium, a technique that has often been used in the 70-year history ofnuclear weapons.
The true nature ofthe test may notberevealed until results are back fromatmospheric testing, and eventhey may be inconclusive.
Earlierin the day, officials and analysts in South Korea cast doubtonthe North’s claim, saying that the seismological data fromthe test was morein keeping with a simpleruranium- or plutonium-based atomic device.
Lee Cheol-woo, a memberofthe intelligence committee ofthe South Korean National Assembly, said his country’s National Intelligence Service had estimated that the explosive yield fromthe test was equivalent to six kilotons ofTNT. (By comparison, the atomic bomb droppedonHiroshimain 1945 explodedwith 15 kilotons of energy.)
A hydrogen bombwould have yielded “hundreds ofkilotons or, evenif it is a failed test, tens of kilotons,” Mr. Lee told reporters. The North’s last nuclear test, in
February 2013, set offa magnitude4.9 tremor. The South estimated that the bomb detonatedonWednesday resulted in a magnitude4.8 seismic event, smaller than the 4.9 to5.2 range that American, Europeanand Chinese authorities had reported.
InSeoul, President ParkGeun-hye convened an urgent meeting ofher top national security aides. As South Korea’s military increased its vigilance along the heavily militarized border with the North, its diplomats rushed to discuss with allies what Ms. Park called “strong sanctions” against Pyongyang.
She said that Pyongyang’s claim, if true, “could potentially shake up the security landscape of Northeast Asia and fundamentally change the nature ofthe NorthKorean nuclear threat.”
PrimeMinister ShinzoAbe of Japan called the test “totally unacceptable” and “a grave threat toJapan’s security,” and he called onthe Security Council totake “firm measures.”
Pyongyang’s sole major ally, China, has been increasingly impatientwith the North’s behaviorand did nothide its displeasure onWednesday. “Today, despite the opposition of the international community, NorthKorea carried out a nuclear test,” Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a news conferencein Beijing. “China is strongly against this act.”
But so far, Beijinghas notbeen willing tototally cut off Pyongyang. “China may strongly criticize the North, but once the issue arrives at the Security Council, it will focus on preventingsanctions that can affect the stability ofthe North Korean regime,” said Chun Yung-woo, a senior adviser at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul and a formertop negotiatorfor South Korea in nuclear talks with the North. “North Korea knows it toowell.”
China, Japan, Russia and the United States, along with the Koreas, are parties in the long-suspended six-nation talks aimed at endingthe North’s nuclear weapons program. At a summit meetingin Washington in October, Ms. Parkand President Obama urgedPyongyang to rejoin those negotiations and warned against a fourth nuclear test. But NorthKorea insisted that the United States first agree tonegotiate a peace treaty with the Northtoreplace the armistice that endedthe Korean War in 1953.
The content and timing ofthe North’s announcement came largely as a surprise, though Pyongyang’s seemingly erratic behaviormay bepart ofa calculated strategy toraise the stakes in any negotiations with the South and with the United States, and tobolster the reputation ofNorthKorea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, at home beforean important party meeting.
Last month, Mr. Kim claimed for the first timethat his country was ready toexplode a hydrogen bomb, and in a NewYear’s Day speech, he called for “modernized” and “more diverse means ofmilitary strike.” Still, the speech did notspecifically mentionnuclear weapons, and it also emphasizedthe need to improveliving standards, so few if any officials or analysts had seen the test coming.
“This raises skepticism about our intelligence-gathering capabilities,” said Kim Dong-yup, an analyst at the University of NorthKorean Studies in Seoul.
Since inheriting power afterthe death ofhis father, Kim Jong-il, in late 2011, Mr. Kim has purged top members ofhis party and of the military elite — and he has provedtobemoreambitious than his father in the pursuit of long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, evenin the face of warnings fromChina.
Under Mr. Kim, NorthKorea launched twolong-range rockets, putting a satellite into orbit in the second attempt, in December 2012. The same year, the North revisedits Constitution todeclare itself a nuclear power. Two months afterthe North’s third — and Mr. Kim’s first — nuclear test, in February 2013, his Workers’ Party adopteda new national strategy: growingits nuclear arsenal and rebuilding its economy at the same time.
Mr. Kim wants his people to consider nuclear weapons the linchpin oftheir survival, but Washington and Seoul have repeatedly warned that the North’s nuclear ambitionswould only deepen its isolation.
“The benefits ofbeinga nuclear power — todeterexternal threats and prove strength domestically — must in his mind outweigh the costs offacing yet another roundofcondemnation and sanctions, which Pyongyang is used toby now,” said John Delury, a NorthKorea expertat Yonsei University in Seoul. “So with this test, he projectspower and claims toenhance national security.”
The Workers’ Party is scheduled tohold its first full-fledged congress since 1980 this May. With nobig improvementsin the lives ofNorthKoreans, Mr. Kim needs something else toshow for his four-year-old rule.
“The biggest achievement Kim Jong-un can offerahead ofthe party congress is his nuclear program,” said ChoiKang, vice president ofthe Asan Institute. “It also means that things don’t look goodin the economic sector.”
Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea specialist at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, said the Northhad madeits hydrogen bombclaim toposition itself in the United States presidential campaign and, perhaps, toenter negotiations with the next administration with increased leverage.
Inrecent years, it has become increasingly clear fromthe North’s pronouncements that its ultimate goal is tocementits status as a nuclear power, and to use that position tohaggle with Washington and its allies towin diplomatic recognition and other concessions.
“There can neither besuspended nuclear developmentnor nuclear dismantlement onthe part ofthe Northunless the U.S. has rolled back its vicious hostile policy towardthe former,” NorthKorea said in a briefannouncement on Wednesday. Itsaid Mr. Kim had madeup his mindlast monthto conduct the hydrogen bombtest, and had signed a final orderon Sunday.
Mr. Chun, the formernegotiator, warned that it would bea mistake for Washington and Seoul torely onChina using its economicleverage toforceNorth Korea tochange course. He said the Northwould budgeonly if the United States and its allies put in place sanctions strong enough tothreaten its survival, like denying portcalls for ships carrying NorthKorean cargo.
China, a permanentmemberof the Security Council, could veto any additional sanctions.